Hope Springs Eternal!

Spring training is here! Yes! That means winter might be over soon ... maybe ... hopefully.

The Blue Jays pitchers and catchers reported on Wednesday, and the position players are trickling in. The off-season has been on the surface underwhelming without any big name additions, but that does not mean we can expect a repeat of last year’s disastrous season on the heels of two straight trip to the ALCS.

Let’s take a quick look at what the Jays have done:

Arrivals: Aledmys Diaz, Yangervis Solarte, Randal Grichuk, Curtis Granderson, Jaime Garcia
Departures: Jose Bautista, Dominic Leone, a bunch of really bad starting pitchers
Notable Spring Training Invitees: Al Alburquerque, John Axford, Craig Breslow

If there is one thing we learned last year, it is that depth matters. The Jays were decimated with injuries to various segments of the roster. They used fourteen starting pitchers last season (one year removed from using only seven .. SEVEN!), and Darwin Barney and Ryan Goins combined for over 800 plate appearances. Not a great strategy for a team competing for the post-season, especially when many of those starters sported ERAs north of 6.00.

The additions of Diaz and Solarte (and to a lesser extent Gift Ngoepe) give the Blue Jays some insulation up the middle which is paramount considering the fragility of Troy Tulowitzki and Devon Travis. As much as we would love to see both players play 140+ games, and get 500+ plate appearances, the stark reality is that the Blue Jays cannot seriously expect either player to reach those plateaus. Solarte and Diaz represent improvements over Barney and Goins, and while they may not be big splashes, both of these acquisitions addressed a major need for the club.

As far as addressing starting depth, the late addition of Garcia gives the Blue Jays five bona fide MLB starting pitchers, and, if healthy, one of the top rotations in the American League. Garcia isn’t Alex Cobb or Jake Arrieta, but he doesn’t have to be. The top four of Stroman, Sanchez, Estrada, and Happ can keep up with most other teams. Garcia is a fine number five starter who will eat some innings and hopefully give them a reasonable chance to win every fifth day. Adding that he is a lefty and had the fifth highest groundball rate in all of baseball last season makes him a fine addition to the back end of the rotation.

The addition of Garcia makes Joe Biagini’s situation much more interesting. He was pencilled in as the fifth starter, but the late addition of Garcia will change that. With Dominic Leone going to the Cardinals in the deal for Randal Grichuk, it may become more prudent to put Biagini back in the bullpen. I expect the Blue Jays will stretch him out in the spring and see what he can do as a starter. His fate will also undoubtedly be influenced by how well Axford, Alburquerque, and Breslow pitch. If any of those guys look like they can be effective in the bullpen then we may see Biagini in Buffalo to start the season as a starter.

The outfield is an interesting situation. Depth abounds with Grichuk, Granderson, Kevin Pillar, Steve Pearce, Ezequiel Carrera, Teoscar Hernandez, Anthony Alford, and Dalton Pompey all in the mix. As it stands right now, I would guess it will look something like Grichuk in right, Pillar in center, and a Pearce/Granderson platoon in left. Carrera could start with the Jays as the fifth outfielder, and Solarte could get some limited time there as well. As great as Hernandez and Alford have both looked with limited reps at the big league level, both will likely start the season in Buffalo for some seasoning, but either could easily take someone’s job at some point during the season. None of the projected starters have a history of injuries (with the possible exception of Pearce), but should there be any, the Blue Jays are in a good position to cover those.

Is anyone seeing a pattern here?

There are plenty of options on the infield as well. Diaz and Solarte as previously mentioned give the Jays insurance up the middle. Solarte can also spell Josh Donaldson at third. Justin Smoak will start at first with Pearce and (sigh) Morales able to step in. The one place the Jays have some uncertainty is behind the plate. Russ Martin is getting old, and catcher is the one position where the effects of age tend to be amplified. Luke Maile, while good defensively, leaves something to be desired as the backup catcher, and the Jays will likely be counting on him to catch at least 40-50 games this season. Danny Jansen and Reese Maguire will likely start in Buffalo and either could take Maile’s job if they perform well early in the season, but it would have been nice to see a MLB capable catcher backing up Martin.

The bullpen is another area where it would have been nice to see some more tangible improvements given that beyond Roberto Osuna, Ryan Tepera, and Aaron Loup, there not a lot of proven options. Even if Biagini ends up there as a multiple inning type guy, there are still a lot of unknowns. They are going to be counting on guys like Matt Dermody, Carlos Ramirez, Danny Barnes, or Tim Mayza, guys who have had some success in limited time. The good news is that finding bullpen guys can often be as easy as throwing a few guys into the fire, and seeing who can handle the heat. It also wouldn’t be out of the realm of possibility to see one or two of Axford, Alburquerque, or Breslow contribute. Of all the places to simply roll the dice with what you have and hope for the best, the bullpen is probably the least perilous. A more reliable lefty like Tony Watson would have been nice, but cobbling together a bullpen isn’t terribly difficult over the course of a season.

So, to summarize, here’s how I project the Opening Day roster:
SP: Stroman, Sanchez, Estrada, Happ, Garcia
RP: Osuna, Tepera, Biagini, Loup, Breslow, Barnes, Ramirez
LF: Granderson/Pearce
CF: Pillar
RF: Grichuk
3B: Donaldson
SS: Tulowitzki
2B: Travis
1B: Smoak
C: Martin
DH: Morales
Bench: Solarte, Maile, Carrera

Although none of the additions jump out at you as being significant, I think the depth that has been added and the current talent puts the Jays in a position where they could compete for a wild card spot. Yes, there are a lot of ifs, probably the largest of which is the health of Aaron Sanchez. It isn’t hard to imagine that even 20 starts from a healthy Sanchez last season would have made a significant difference to the Blue Jays fate.

The other key I think is Devon Travis. Even though the Jays have insulated against another injury riddled season, Travis is one of the best hitters on this team when healthy. He has the potential to hit north of .300 and is really the only leadoff candidate that projects to be on the MLB roster.

Overall I think the Jays did improve this off-season. They added some good depth players and addressed some of the problems that plagued the club last off-season. Most importantly, they were able to do so without moving any of their top prospects. The added MLB depth will only help the team going forward, especially considering the injury history of some of their key players. I still think a better option behind Russ Martin will go a long way, and one or two more reliable bullpen arms would help solidify the late innings, although the bullpen arms could very well materialize over the course of the season.

This is going to be a very interesting season for the Blue Jays. I think they will be in the mix for a wild card spot, but in the weeks leading up to the trade deadline it’s going to be interesting to see how much confidence the front office has in this group if the team is in the dreaded middle ground 5-8 games out of a wild card spot. Do they pull the chute and get ready for the coming of Bo and Vlad Jr., or do they try to add pieces and go for it? Here's hoping we don't have to find out because the Jays are solidly in a post-season position.

I’m ready, bring on baseball!
(well, I'm always ready)